Rich Miller
Geography, ideology are against Bailey
By Rich Miller
I was looking for something else recently on Scott Kennedy’s Illinois Election Data website and noticed he had voter turnout numbers from statewide races since 1990.
We all know that Downstate has lost a significant amount of its political importance, but the numbers really help illustrate this decline.
In 1990, 42% of the total vote for governor came from Downstate counties, while a mere 17% came from the suburban collar counties outside Cook.
By 2018, just 36% of the total vote for governor came from Downstate and 25% was from the collars. When you expand the definition of the collar counties to include some in the Chicago metro region that had previously been considered more rural, the Downstate figure drops to 31% and the share of the collar county vote rises to 29%.
I happened to be talking with former Gov. Jim Edgar about something else shortly after seeing those numbers, and when I brought it up he said that in those days, Republicans would figure on being stomped in the city, but they’d win the Cook and collar county suburbs and then the margin Downstate would wind up being pretty close to the statewide spread.
In Edgar’s first gubernatorial election in 1990, that’s just what happened. He lost Chicago by 33 points, won suburban Cook by 18, won the collars by 27 and took Downstate by 3, winning overall that year by just under 3 percentage points.
Edgar focused intently on the suburbs, campaigning on a promise to cap local property taxes and highlighted his strong support of abortion rights, among other things the voters in that region cared about.
By 2018, Chicago and suburban Cook County made up almost the same percentage share of the total vote for governor as it did in 1990, declining only by about a percentage point. The difference, though, is that the Cook County suburbs are now firmly in Democratic control. Edgar won them by 18 points back in the day, but JB Pritzker won them by 29 points in 2018. That’s a 47-point swing.
The collars have leaned Democratic during presidential years since Barack Obama’s national bid in 2008, and gradually started trending more Democratic in off-year races, culminating in Pritzker’s three-point collar county win over Bruce Rauner in 2018 and historic county-wide Democratic wins in the region both that year and in 2020.
Downstate has become much more reliable for Republicans. No statewide Democrat except Secretary of State Jesse White has won the region for the past 10 years. Obama won it in 2008 by four points, but lost Downstate four years later by 7, an 11-point flip. Pritzker lost it by 10 points four years ago.
But the increase in Republican identification in the region has not been enough to make up for its falling vote share and the party’s more recent disadvantages in the suburbs. Pat Quinn lost Downstate by 24 points in 2010 and still managed to eke out a narrow victory, after all.
Partisan red meat works well in Downstate, and Republican gubernatorial candidate Sen. Darren Bailey will likely run up his numbers there, but it definitely doesn’t work in the suburbs, and Bailey has spent much of his campaign ignoring this basic Illinois electoral math and crafting an under-funded message that, if anything, almost appears to be designed to turn away those collar county voters. It’s impossible to win statewide by running up the score in a region which contains barely more than a third of the vote while turning off, and even firing up opposition in, the rest of the state.
Bailey’s recent “kitchen table” policy proposal is to require the University of Illinois’ flagship campus to guarantee that 90% of its enrollment is made up of Illinois residents.
Other states have similar requirements mainly because of pressure from parents, and many of those folks live in the suburbs.
When Bruce Rauner was governor and universities struggled without a state budget, UIUC and other campuses were left to their own devices. The fiscal situation was only marginally better under Pat Quinn. Rauner took a fiscal crisis and turned it into a calamity.
State finances are better now, so perhaps it is time to start discussing the use of large numbers of international students to subsidize tuition for everyone else.
But, on the politics side, Bailey is gonna need infinitely more than this to overcome his geographical and ideological deficits.
Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and CapitolFax.com.
Local News
It’s (pizza) party time at OLS
Spread the love. Third graders at Our Lady of the Snows School break into cheers as they learn they’ve won a pizza party for selling more raffle booklets than any other class. The recent Grand Raffle fundraiser brought in about $6,000. Parents looking for a grade school for their sons and daughters for 2024-25 are…
Dart wants free mental health care for first responders
Spread the love. From staff reports The Illinois Senate has passed legislation proposed by Cook County Sheriff Thomas J. Dart that eliminates out-of-pocket expenses for first responders seeking mental health treatment. “We ask first responders to be constantly exposed to traumatic and dangerous situations to protect us,” Dart said. “This legislation is a solid step…
Volunteers give Palos Heights a spring cleaning
Spread the loveBy Kelly White Palos Heights works hard to keep its city beautiful. Gathering residents together for a day of cleaning and fun was the Palos Heights Green Team with a Clean Up Day on April 13. “This event invited everyone in our community to do their part in combating pollution by having a…
Hunt man who tried to rob Chase Bank
Spread the love. FBI looking for tips from public . From staff reports FBI officials are appealing to the public for help in finding a man who attempted to rob a Southwest Side bank branch. The bandit tried to rob the Chase Bank branch at 5687 S. Archer (just west of Laramie) at about 11…
Casten lauds Biden for ‘clean energy’ move
Spread the love. From staff reports A move designed to spur the responsible development of clean energy on America’s public lands was recently lauded by U.S. Rep. Sean Casten (D-6th). The congressman, co-chairman of the House Sustainable Energy and Environment Coalition (SEEC) Clean Energy Deployment Task Force, joined by co-chairman Mike Levin (D-Calif.), released a…
E-Notary makes things easier, Giannoulias says
Spread the love. From staff reports Illinois residents will no longer have to notarize documents in person under a new Electronic-Notary system administered by Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias’ office. Electronic Notarization, or “E-Notary,” will radically change the way people and use notary services, Giannoulias predicted. Without leaving the home or office, an individual or…
Oak Lawn honor Fire and Public Safety Contest winners
Spread the loveBy Joe Boyle The Oak Lawn Chamber of Commerce presented awards to the winners of the 2023 Fire and Public Safety Coloring Book Contest at the Oak Lawn Village Board meeting on April 9. Fire Bureau Chief David Wheeler and Police Chief Daniel Vittoro were on hand to present the plaques, along with Oak…
Rashid scolds TV news orgs on climate change
Spread the love. From staff reports State Rep. Abdelnasser Rashid (D-21st) recently scolded major news organizations for what he called a lack of attention to climate change. “Last year was marked by alarming climate extremes, from record-breaking heat waves to devastating floods, droughts and wildfires,” Rashid wrote earlier this month in a letter to his…
Comings & Goings: Ross to replace Walt’s at Tinley Park Plaza
Spread the loveBy Bob Bong When Walt’s Foods closed its Tinley Park location almost three years ago, it left a giant hole in the Tinley Park Plaza near 159th Street and Harlem Avenue. That hole will soon be filled with a new 22,000-square-foot Ross Dress for Less store and a 9,800-square-foot Five Below store. A…
SD122 celebrates end of Ramadan at Simmons Middle School
Spread the loveBy Nuha Abdessalam As Ramadan was drawing to a close for Muslims worldwide, District 122’s Superintendent Joseph Matise, Oak Lawn Community High School’s Muslim Students Association club, and the district’s Parents Committee came together to create history. They hosted the first-ever Iftar dinner at Simmons Middle School on April 8, a significant event…
Neighbors
Swanson scores, assists in Red Stars’ win over Reign
Spread the loveThe Red Stars improved to 3-1-1 by beating the Seattle Reign, 2-1, on the road on April 21. Mallory Swanson had an assist on an Ali Schlegel goal in the fourth minute and added a goal of her own in the 31st minute. Swanson missed last season after sustaining a knee injury on…
Red Stars’ Tatumn Milazzo has top Save of the Week
Spread the loveBy Jeff Vorva Correspondent Tatumn Milazzo called her achievement “funny.” The Chicago Red Stars defender and Orland Park native was awarded the NWSL’s Save of the Week after chasing down a ball in a loss to Angel City on April 13. The Save of the Week usually goes to a goalie. Milazzo laughed…
Men’s College Volleyball | Saint Xavier captures fifth straight conference tourney title
Spread the loveBy Jeff Vorva Correspondent The SXU men’s volleyball team won its fifth straight Chicagoland Christian Athletic Conference tournament championship after a 25-16, 25-17, 25-22 sweep of Calumet College of St. Joseph on April 20 at the Shannon Center. Jan Lopuch had 10 kills and nine digs for the Cougars. With the win, the…
College Baseball | Saint Xavier upsets Eastern Illinois
Spread the loveBy Jeff Vorva Correspondent The Saint Xavier baseball team picked up a win that its players are going to remember for a long time. The Cougars stunned Eastern Illinois, 4-2, on April 17 in Charleston. It was the Cougars’ first win over the Panthers, a Division I program, since 2005. Lyons grad Troy…
St. Laurence hoops teams top honor roll
Spread the loveBy Jeff Vorva Correspondent Area basketball teams proved to be strong on the court and in the classroom this season, and St. Laurence was the leader of the pack. The Illinois Basketball Coaches Association compiled a list of the top academic teams, and the area did well. In Division 3 girls, St. Laurence…
Chicago Bears recognize St. Rita senior with All-Star award
Spread the loveBy Jeff Vorva Correspondent Chances are good that few outside of St. Rita football circles know who David Lyle is. With good reason. Lyle missed his senior season for the Mustangs last fall after sustaining a serious knee injury. He even postponed having knee surgery so that he could take care of his…
Pols want 63rd St. armory for new police HQ
Spread the love. Porfirio, Guerrero-Cuellar push plan in Springfield . By Tim Hadac Any plans the Chicago Department of Aviation may have had for the vacant Army National Guard Midway Armory, 5400 W. 63rd St., may be grounded, at least for now. Several elected officials are eyeing the parcel as the headquarters of a new…
Her back against the wall, Stacy needs help
Spread the love. By Tim Hadac Editor Clear-Ridge Reporter & NewsHound (708)-496-0265 . Clearing and Garfield Ridge have earned a reputation as a place where people look out for each other—and that sometimes means caring for each other in times of need. Today, I want to talk about one such person, who sure could use…